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Holding · Reorg in progress

Sections still being placed.

These five sections were pulled off the home page during the post-result information-architecture pass. They remain wired to the same data and render correctly — parked here while the final home/analysis split is worked out. Some will return to home or move into /analysis; the rest may be retired.

The Flip Matrix · 2021 → 2026

Where the 234 seats came from.

Every 2026 winner was either a hold from the alliance that won that seat in 2021, or a flip. The grid below counts both — read across each row to see where a 2021 alliance's seats went; read down a column to see where each 2026 bloc's seats came from. The single biggest flow: 78 seats moved from DMK-led SPA to TVK (Vijay).

234 seats · 2021 alliance ↓ × 2026 bloc →
↓ from 2021TVKNDASPAOTHER2021
NDA302520·75
SPA782853·159
2026 total10853730234
DMK-led SPATVK (Vijay)
78 seats
AIADMK-led NDATVK (Vijay)
30 seats
DMK-led SPAAIADMK-led NDA
28 seats
AIADMK-led NDADMK-led SPA
20 seats

Diagonal cells = held; off-diagonal = flipped. SPA contested with the same 2021 partners; NDA reabsorbed BJP+PMK in 2024 and contested as a single bloc; TVK and NTK contested solo. Read against the 2021 baseline on the /analysis page.

The SIR Effect

Where the cleansed roll changed the outcome.

The Special Intensive Revision struck 74 lakh namesfrom Tamil Nadu's rolls before this election. Did that cleansing shape the result? Sort the 234 ACs into five buckets by how heavily their rolls were cleaned, then look at who won in each bucket. The pattern is unmistakable.

The headline contrast

In ACs with the lightest SIR cleanup, TVK won 26% of seats. In ACs with the heaviest cleanup, TVK won 77%.

A 2.9× swing toward the new party in places where the rolls were most aggressively shrunk. Whether SIR caused the swing or merely correlated with it, the gradient is real.

234 ACs sorted by SIR-strike % (lightest → heaviest)

The gradient.

1 (lightest)
-5.2–4.9% struck
12
15
19
26%TVK
2
4.9–7.4% struck
15
12
20
32%TVK
3
7.5–9.9% struck
19
14
14
40%TVK
4
10.0–14.8% struck
26
9
12
55%TVK
5 (heaviest)
14.9–38.0% struck
36
8
77%TVK
TVKNDASPAOTHER

SIR-strike % = (electors-2021 − electors-2026) / electors-2021. ACs with negative strike (added more names than removed) sit in quintile 1. The 47 ACs with the heaviest cleanup gave TVK 36 of those seats — a 77% strike rate.

The Apathy Margin · Closed

Where the people who didn't vote went.

2021's headline number was the non-voter — 172.55 lakh Tamilians stayed home, more than the entire winning alliance's vote. Five years later, after the Special Intensive Revision, that pool has collapsed to 73.83 lakh — a 57% drop. Some of that is real turnout growth; much of it is a smaller denominator after 74 lakh names were struck. But did the absentees still decide anything?

Stayed home in 2026
73.83 lakh
-57.2% vs 2021 (172.55 lakh)
Seats where no-shows > margin
197
of 234 (84%) — apathy still bigger than the result
Seats where no-shows ≥ 10× margin
36
extreme cases — Tiruppattur (AC 185) hit 57,746×
The cleanest finding from the apathy data

In ACs where turnout grew the LEAST since 2021, TVK won 13% of seats. Where it grew the MOST, TVK won 83%.

A 6.4× swing. Wherever new voters showed up — or absent voters were removed via SIR — TVK won. Almost every story this year traces back to the cleansed roll meeting a high-turnout enthusiasm wave.

234 ACs sorted by turnout shift (smallest → largest)

The other gradient.

1 (smallest)
+3.6 to +7.6 pp
6
13
27
13%TVK
2
+7.6 to +9.3 pp
18
13
16
38%TVK
3
+9.3 to +11.3 pp
17
14
16
36%TVK
4
+11.4 to +15.1 pp
28
12
7
60%TVK
5 (largest)
+15.1 to +30.1 pp
39
7
83%TVK
TVKNDASPAOTHER

Turnout shift = VTR 2026 − VTR 2021, in percentage points. Every AC saw turnout go up — the smallest gain was +3.6pp, the largest +30pp. The TVK column climbs from 6 in the lowest quintile to 39 in the highest.

Apathy outliers · 10 seats where absentees most outweighed the margin

Won by a sliver, decided by the rest.

AC
Constituency · Winner
Margin
No-shows
×
185
TiruppatturTVK
1
57,746
57,746×
229
KanniyakumariNDA
214
47,818
223×
54
VeppanahalliSPA
138
21,267
154×
66
PolurTVK
227
20,683
91.1×
76
TirukkoyilurNDA
285
23,685
83.1×
171
KumbakonamTVK
679
43,580
64.2×
201
CumbumTVK
751
43,072
57.4×
218
KovilpattiSPA
843
45,785
54.3×
234
KilliyoorSPA
1,311
66,303
50.6×
95
Paramathi-VelurNDA
308
14,722
47.8×

The top row, Tiruppattur (AC 185), was decided by a one-vote margin while 57,746 registered voters stayed home. The least apathetic outcomes — places like Edappadi (AC 86) where EPS won by 98,110 with only ~16k no-shows — appear at the opposite extreme. Across 234 seats, the median ratio was ~ a few hundred.

Round by Round · 4 May 2026

Counting day, ten ways.

Each card replays a single AC the way Returning Officers tabulated it: cumulative votes per candidate per round. Stalin's Kolathur, Vijay's Perambur, EPS's Edappadi, Seeman's Karaikudi, the rally-crush AC of Karur, and the closest seat in the state — Tiruppattur, won by a single vote, called at 2 AM.

AC 12 · 23 rounds

PERAMBUR

Vijay's primary seat — TVK debut win

060k120kR1R12R23
C. JOSEPH VIJAYTVK1,19,785
R.D. SHEKARDMK66,080
M. THILAGABAMAPMK8,471
S. VETRI THAMIZHANNTK5,080
Margin: 53,70548 candidates total
AC 13 · 22 rounds

KOLATHUR

CM Stalin's seat — lost to TVK

041k83kR1R11R22
V. S. BABUTVK82,614
M. K. STALINDMK73,220
P. SANTHANA KRISHNANAIADMK18,215
SOUNDARA PANDIAN LUDER SETHNTK5,012
Margin: 9,39436 candidates total
AC 17 · 15 rounds

ROYAPURAM

DMK heartland — TVK flip

029k59kR1R8R15
K.V. VIJAY DAMUTVK58,710
DR. A. SUBAIR KHANDMK44,514
D. JAYAKUMARAIADMK18,170
A. BABU MAILANNTK2,918
Margin: 14,19629 candidates total
AC 19 · 17 rounds

CHEPAUK-THIRUVALLIKENI

Deputy CM Udhayanidhi held

031k63kR1R9R17
UDHAYANIDHI STALINDMK62,560
SELVAM. DTVK55,636
AADIRAJARAMAIADMK16,368
AYSHANTK2,959
Margin: 6,92426 candidates total
AC 25 · 21 rounds

MYLAPORE

Central Chennai — TVK pickup

035k70kR1R11R21
VENKATARAMANAN. PTVK69,748
VELU. DHADMK40,647
DR. TAMILISAI SOUNDARARAJANBJP31,844
ARUN. R.LNTK4,470
Margin: 29,10120 candidates total
AC 86 · 25 rounds

EDAPPADI

Leader of Opposition EPS — biggest blowout in TN

073k147kR1R13R25
EDAPPADI PALANISWAMI. KAIADMK1,46,534
PREMKUMAR. KIND50,765
KASI. CDMK42,967
PRIYADHARSHINI. ANTK8,311
Margin: 95,76916 candidates total
AC 135 · 21 rounds

KARUR

Site of Sept 2025 rally crush — AIADMK held

035k71kR1R11R21
M.R. VIJAYABHASKARAIADMK70,887
MATHIYALAGAN V.PTVK69,333
AASEE.M. THIAGARAJANDMK66,432
KARUPPAIYA. RNTK5,390
Margin: 1,55480 candidates total
AC 141 · 28 rounds

TIRUCHIRAPPALLI EAST

Vijay's second seat — won both

045k90kR1R14R28
C. JOSEPH VIJAYTVK90,431
S. INIGO IRUDAYARAJDMK62,859
G. RAJASEKARANAIADMK19,437
DR.KRISHNASAMY .VNTK4,725
Margin: 27,57221 candidates total
AC 184 · 30 rounds

KARAIKUDI

Seeman (NTK) lost his own seat

050k101kR1R15R30
DR.PRABHU. TKTVK1,00,627
MANGUDI. SINC54,417
DHERPOKI V.PANDIAMMK33,066
SEEMANNTK30,477
Margin: 46,21026 candidates total
AC 185 · 30 rounds

TIRUPPATTUR

Closest seat in TN — won by 1 vote, declared 2 AM

042k83kR1R15R30
SEENIVASA SETHUPATHY. RTVK83,010
PERIAKARUPPAN. KRDMK82,191
THIRUMARAN. K.CBJP28,778
RAMYA MOHANNTK15,189
Margin: 81916 candidates total
The Apathy Margin

The vote that wasn't.

Winners and margins dominate election coverage. But in 2021, non-voters outnumbered the winner's margin in nearly nine of every ten constituencies. The people who didn't vote exerted more weight than the candidates who won. This is their accounting — and the scaffolding we'll use to measure the 2026 surge against, once counting is done.

Non-voters · 2021
1,72,54,993
27.18% of the roll sat out
Non-voters · 2026
85,18,550
15.02% of the roll sat out
Change
−87,36,443
12.15 pp fewer absentees
ACs where apathy > margin · 2021
228
of 234 (97%)
The Lede
In Thiyagarayanagar, more than 1,09,000 people stayed home in 2021. The winner came in by 137 votes.
That is a ratio of 792-to-one — the non-voters outnumbered the winning margin by nearly eight hundred times. In Tamil Nadu's 2021 assembly election, non-voters outnumbered the winner's margin in 228 of 234 constituencies.
Constituencies with the Widest Apathy Gap · 2021
ACNameNon-votersWinner's marginRatioWinner
24Thiyagarayanagar1,08,562137792.4×DMK
222Tenkasi81,621370220.6×INC
100Modakkurichi59,781281212.7×BJP
85Mettur72,775656110.9×PMK
122Kinathukadavu96,6061,09588.2×ADMK
40Katpadi65,43874687.7×DMK
53Krishnagiri57,96779473.0×ADMK
152Vriddhachalam58,69886268.1×INC
153Neyveli56,92097758.3×DMK
120Coimbatore (South)1,00,2441,72858.0×BJP

Ratio = 2021 non-voters ÷ winner's 2021 margin. On counting day we will compute this for 2026 alongside — in constituencies where this ratio exceeds one, voter abstention is a larger force than the contest itself.

Methodology

Non-voters = registered electors minus votes cast. 2021 margin = the winner's vote total minus the runner-up's. 2026 non-voter counts here are from the provisional ECINET turnout at 21:18 IST on 23 April 2026 — the final ECI figures typically revise this number downward by 1–2 percentage points (more voters will be counted). The 2026 winner-margin column, and the updated apathy ratio, arrive with counting day.